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Does the probability of you having a plane crash increase with each flight you take? |
Does the probability of you having a plane crash increase with each flight you take? it doesn't, but it's the same as "does the chance of me getting a six from rolling a dice increase the more times i roll it?" it doesn't, the chance is still 1/6. but you're likely to get a six if you throw it a few more times. and same principle applies. The probability of having a crash in the next flight remains the same. But the probability that you will have had a crash after 100 flights is much greater than that the probability of having had a crash after only 1 flight. If you fly the big planes , there is no chance, you are more likely to be struck by lightening. Yes, relatively speaking. If the probability of a crash is 1 in a 100, and you've had 100 flights, there is a high chance of having that 1 crash. However, that would be if you were flying the plane yourself. With a passenger group of say 200 people, the risk of a crash is the net average of the whole flying experience of the group. Not everyone will be on their 100th flight, so the risk is very low. But watch out if someone baords your plane with say 100000000 flights, that will definitlely tip the odds against you. |
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